BPIF poll flags up questions over Brexit impact

The latest ‘Printing Outlook’ survey shows 40% of printers increased output levels in the final quarter of 2017 whilst 21% experienced a decline. Whilst the forecast for Q1 is subdued, it is not unduly so for the Q1 period according to the federation. 37% of respondents predict they will increase output levels in Q1, 38% expect output levels to hold steady and rest expect to see a fall.

The Brexit Barometers continue to report low confidence levels regarding the outlook for the UK economy during the Brexit negotiation period following UK withdrawal from the EU, however the barometers are less negative then they were in Q4. In comparison to last quarter, slightly more respondents (18%) are now ‘somewhat confident’ regarding the outlook for the UK economy; up from 17% in Q4. Just over one-third (34%) are currently ‘neither confident nor unconfident’, up from 27% previously. Just over two-fifths (41%) are ‘somewhat unconfident’; down from 50% in Q4. Few respondents (1%) are in the ‘very confident’ category and 6% have now selected the ‘very unconfident’ category. Charles Jarrold, BPIF chief executive, said: “Brexit continues to provoke a wide range of opinions from printers. Ranging from boredom and disinterest to concern over lack of knowledge, clarity and certainty. We are picking up both fear and anticipation over the implications and effects of Brexit. What is certain is that more needs to be done to research and prepare - whatever the outcome of the next phase of negotiations. We will continue to monitor Brexit confidence in ‘Printing Outlook’, represent the industry and lobby on its behalf. As negotiations progress we will be having a closer look as to how the likely outcomes will affect the UK printing industry.” Confidence in the general state of trade in the printing industry deteriorated in Q4, though not quite to the depth that was forecast - the outlook for Q1 is similarly depressive. The Q3 rebound in confidence in the general state of trade was short-lived as the actual report for Q4 tracked the forecast. Whilst respondents’ views on individual company performance remain subdued but positive, on balance - opinions on the general state of trade are more circumspect. There is no escape from competitors’ pricing below cost being the most voiced business concern - the proportion selecting it this quarter increased. On this occasion competitors pricing was selected by 70% of respondents, up from 65% previously (it was 70% and 81% in the preceding quarters). Paper and board prices remains the second ranked concern; this was selected by 60% of respondents, up from 47% last quarter (and 42% and 32% prior to that). Access to skilled labour remains the third ranked concern, with 32% of respondents selecting it, putting it above poor output prices which has replaced late payment by customers as the fourth-ranked business concern.